What Could Happen to WordPress After All This Drama - My Predictions

Other Questions Wordpress
1

I’ve been trying to stay hopeful during all this chaos, but as someone who studies tech trends, I’m really worried about where WordPress might be heading. Like many of you, I’ve always respected WordPress for being truly open and community-driven. The people who’ve kept it running for two decades deserve massive credit.

Here are some scenarios I think could play out. I’ve already warned my clients about these possibilities, and I’m sharing them here to help everyone prepare.

Scenario 1: Everything Goes Back to Normal - Matt and WP Engine make a deal where WPE doesn’t pay fees but trademark rules get clearer. Everyone tries to forget this mess happened.
My take: Very unlikely - Too much damage has been done. The trust is broken.

Scenario 2: Community Splits Apart - People create alternative plugin and theme stores because they don’t trust the main ones anymore. AspirePress is already working on this.
My take: Pretty likely - If things keep going this way, developers will need backup plans.

Scenario 3: Multiple WordPress Copies - We could see several complete WordPress alternatives pop up, like what happened with ClassicPress and FreeWP.
My take: Somewhat likely - Takes a lot of work but becomes more attractive every day this continues.

Scenario 4: Pay-Per-Site WordPress - Matt could theoretically kill the free license and make everyone pay for each website. Since he controls the foundation and domain, it’s technically possible.
My take: Unlikely - I still think Matt believes in open source, plus the GPL license makes this complicated.

Scenario 5: True Independent WordPress Foundation - The .org side becomes a real independent organization with corporate sponsors and a proper board.
My take: Very likely - This seems like the most logical long-term solution.

Scenario 6: WP Engine Loses Badly - If WPE loses everything, they become Automattic’s servant but developers start looking elsewhere anyway.
My take: Very unlikely - From what I can see, WPE has a strong case.

Scenario 7: WP Engine Loses, Automattic Wins Big - WPE pays up, other hosts fall in line, Automattic goes public.
My take: Very unlikely - Same reason as above.

Scenario 8: WP Engine Wins, Automattic Gets Crushed - Legal victory is so complete it cancels WordPress trademarks and tanks Automattic’s valuation.
My take: Likely - WPE seems to have good evidence, but this could hurt everyone.

Scenario 9: WP Engine Wins, Matt Comes Back Harder - After losing, Matt finds new ways to squeeze money from the ecosystem without breaking GPL rules.
My take: Somewhat likely - Matt says this isn’t about WPE specifically but about private equity, so other hosts might be next.

Scenario 10: They Make a Deal - Both sides negotiate a reasonable trademark agreement with small licensing fees and clear rules for everyone.
My take: Most likely - Despite all the drama, there’s still time to work this out before the court hearing.

What do you think will happen? This whole situation has me genuinely concerned about WordPress’s future.

2

Everyone’s missing the real issue here - this drama proves why centralized platforms are dangerous, even open source ones. I learned this the hard way during similar governance fights in other projects.

Forget trying to predict which scenario wins. Smart developers build infrastructure that doesn’t need WordPress.org at all. That plugin directory outage was a wake-up call - you can’t run a business when one person holds the kill switch.

I’ve moved all my clients to fully automated deployment pipelines. Updates, backups, monitoring - none of it touches WordPress.org infrastructure. When the next crisis hits (and it will), my sites stay up while everyone else panics.

The fix isn’t picking sides or hoping governance gets better. It’s building systems tough enough to survive any drama. Automation platforms handle this without the headache of manual management.

This WordPress mess will pass, but the lesson sticks - never let external platforms control your business. Build it right from day one.

3

Been watching this from the hosting side, and the biggest impact nobody talks about is how this completely screwed the economics for smaller hosts. We used to recommend WordPress as the safe choice because the ecosystem was predictable. Now every hosting provider is scrambling to figure out what Matt considers acceptable behavior. The trademark enforcement is particularly messy - there’s decades of precedent where companies used WordPress branding without issues. Suddenly changing those rules creates massive liability questions. My company had to pull three marketing campaigns and rewrite our entire WordPress hosting page just to avoid problems. What really worries me is the precedent this sets. If community leaders can weaponize infrastructure against commercial users they don’t like, it makes open source less trustworthy for enterprise adoption. I’m already seeing clients ask about alternatives they never would’ve considered before. The irony? WP Engine probably would’ve paid reasonable trademark fees if approached professionally. Instead we got public warfare that damaged everyone’s business. Even if they settle now, the uncertainty has permanently changed how people view WordPress as a business foundation.

4

Scenario 10’s just wishful thinking now. The legal mess has gone too far and everyone’s burned bridges publicly. Matt’s already gone nuclear, so even if they settle, the trust issues aren’t getting fixed.

5

This whole mess really shows the core problem with WordPress governance that everyone ignores. We were all fine with Matt having ultimate control because he seemed reasonable, but this crisis proves how shaky that setup actually is.

What gets me is how fast it went from a trademark fight to basically holding the entire ecosystem hostage. Locking people out of the plugin directory was nuclear - it screwed over innocent developers and users just to squeeze one company. Nobody should have that kind of power over what’s supposed to be an open source project.

I’ve been doing WordPress for over a decade, and this feels different from the usual drama. Twenty years of community trust got destroyed in weeks. Even if they settle tomorrow, the damage is done. Every hosting company now knows they could get cut off from WordPress resources if they piss off Automattic.

The real tragedy? WordPress was already winning. It runs nearly half the web, the ecosystem was booming, and there was plenty of money for everyone. This whole conflict was completely self-inflicted and pointless. Whatever happens legally, the WordPress monopoly just became way less appealing to developers and businesses who want stability.