I’m trying to figure out what confidence percentage to enter in JIRA when I’m doing effort estimates for new requirements. I know that 100% would be perfect in theory, but that’s probably not realistic most of the time.
I’m thinking about using 80% since I feel pretty good about my estimation skills and the work seems familiar to me. Does this sound reasonable? I don’t want to be too optimistic but also don’t want to undersell my ability to estimate accurately.
What do other teams typically use for their confidence levels? Is there a standard approach or best practice for this? I’m curious about what works well in practice versus what looks good on paper.
From what I’ve seen across different teams, 70-75% confidence works better than 80%. Experienced devs always hit unexpected challenges or dependencies that aren’t obvious when you’re first estimating. For routine stuff like bug fixes or features you’ve built before, 75-80% is fine. But new tech or complex requirements? I’d go 60-70%. What matters most is staying consistent within your team, not hitting some magic number. Track how your estimates actually turn out and adjust your confidence levels - you’ll get way more accurate over time.
After a few years of this, I’ve figured out confidence percentages really depend on what you’re estimating. For maintenance or features similar to recent work, 75% works well. But for new frameworks, third-party integrations, or vague requirements? I rarely go above 60%. Your confidence should reflect both your estimation skills AND the work’s uncertainty. I track my actual delivery times against estimates and confidence levels over several sprints - gives you real data on whether you’re too optimistic or conservative. Don’t worry about other teams. Find the sweet spot that helps your team plan while accounting for how software development actually works.
Honestly, 80% seems too high for most situations. I stick around 65% because there’s always some curveball during development. Even straightforward work hits integration issues or unclear requirements. Maybe start lower and bump up your confidence as you get familiar with the specific work you’re doing?